For each year, the PDO and TAG phases were predicted using the transition probabilities between four-year phases from 1951 to one year prior to the year used to make the prediction. For example, to predict 2008 DCV phases, transition probabilities from 1951 to 2003 where used, along with 2004 current DCV phases. Below is the probability time series of the predicted phase for each DCV (bars) and the observed DCV (line). The predicted phase with the larger probability was used in the four-year lead time dryness/wetness outlooks.
