For each season, the PDO and TAG phases were predicted using the transition probabilities between four-season phases from 1951 to the same season one year prior to make the prediction. For example, to predict June to August 2008 DCV phases, transition probabilities from June to August 1951 to June to August 2006 were used, along with June to August 2007 current DCV phases. Below are the probability time series of the predicted phase for each seasonal DCV (bars) and the observed seasonal DCV (line). The predicted phase with the larger probability was used in the four-season lead time dryness/wetness outlooks.
Choose a four-season lead time timeseries to display:
